Frontlines

Deck: 
The U.S. faces a near doubling of population this century. Will there be enough power for the people?
Fortnightly Magazine - June 2004
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Frontlines

The U.S. faces a near doubling of population this century. Will there be enough power for the people?

On this the 75th anniversary of its publication, -a journal that has sought out the truth through its investigation and understanding, been a place for knowledge and scholarship, and been a medium for intellectual discourse within the energy industry-looks out to the future.

In 2004, the quintessential question remains what it was 75 years ago: How will the energy industry meet the demands of tomorrow?

In the early 20th century, a mere 247,000 out of a potential 5 million customers had electricity, according to the National Academy of Engineers. Today, the investor-owned utility industry serves almost half of the 293 million who live in the United States. The average number of electric utility customers has run as high as 135 million, according to Energy Velocity. The industry has come a long way.

But looking to the future, one sees clouds beginning to form. The answers to the questions become more difficult. The limitations and the obstacles increase. As we see a linear increase in demand, the difficulty of meeting that demand grows exponentially.

In 100 years, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that the U.S. population could double to 570 million people-and that's a conservative estimate. Furthermore, the highest projections are 553 million people by 2050 and 1.2 billion by 2100. (These numbers account for below-replacement-value fertility rates and include immigration. Certainly, both trends are subject to change.)

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