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Future Imperfect: Managing Strategic Risk In an Age of Uncertainty

Part 1 of a 2-part article explores new technologies most likely to influence competitive success.

Fortnightly Magazine - January 2007

provide warning of occurrences that currently reside over the horizon of the foreseeable. And I will suggest that building a culture of open inquiry and communication will make a material difference in responding to those developments that still emerge unbidden and unanticipated from an imperfect future.



1. This article is adapted with permission from Managing Enterprise Risk: What the Electric Industry Experience Implies for Contemporary Business, Karyl Leggio, David L. Bodde, and Marilyn Taylor, eds. (Elsevier, 2006).

2. The Western Union case draws upon: Smith, George D. “The Bell-Western Union Patent Agreement of 1879: A Study in Corporate Imagination,” Readings in the Management of Innovation, Michael L. Tushman and William L. Moore eds. (Ballinger, 1988).

3. National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering, The Hydrogen Economy, National Academies Press, 2004.

4. In contrast, the stationary generating fleet in the United States has a generating capacity of around 1 TW, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.