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Forecasting New Gas Users

Fortnightly Magazine - February 1 1995

vs. Model)Establishment* Data 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

TypeSmall Actual 753 915 796 807 844 765 865 601

18,000 Model 766 901 793 825 849 746 854 605

Diff. +13 -14 -3 +18 +5 -20 -1 +4Medium Actual 386 473 545 491 613 538 703 486

13,000 Model 384 473 554 498 612 527 701 514

Diff. -2 0 +9 +7 -1 -11 -2 +28Large Actual 37 63 70 65 158 128 92 75

3,000 Model 45 57 60 71 156 130 94 63

Diff. +12 -6 -10 +6 -2 +2 +2 -12Total Actual 1176 1451 1411 1363 1614 1431 1660 1162

Model 1199 1431 1407 1394 1616 1402 1659 1182

Diff. +23 -20 -4 +31 +2 -29 -1 +20*"Small" denotes potential gas use 5000 Mcf/yr.Table 2

Installations of Gas-fired Equipment

(Actual vs. Model)Year Small Market Medium Market Large Market

Actual Model Diff. % Actual Model Diff. % Actual Model Diff. %1988 650 643 -1 371 372 0 26 26 0

1989 594 653 10 339 344 2 24 27 11

1990 679 656 -3 370 375 1 49 47 -4

1991 602 589 -2 365 338 -7 57 57 0

1992 651 637 -2 418 423 1 49 52 6

1993 469 475 1 379 358 -6 33 36 9

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