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The Oracle of AMR: Interview With Howard Scott

The Oracle of AMR
Fortnightly Magazine - March 2005

reaching limitations is with the smaller utilities. I have said for years that we will probably see 70 to 80 percent overall saturation. That saturation level in utilities below 500,000 customers is in the 120 million range. Almost all of the saturation problems will occur at the lower end. That won't happen at the upper end because the larger utilities will have regulatory and community pressures that will drive them to offer the higher quality of service afforded by AMR. So, we are looking at two different markets that are about the same size.

Fortnightly:What has been sold into each market?

Howard Scott: Those numbers are also fascinating. The number that has been sold in the below-500,000 market is 29.7 million AMR units as of the first of last year. And the number in the upper end is 31.5 million AMR units as of the first of last year. Thus, not only are both markets about the same size, approximately the same amounts have been sold into each market.

Fortnightly: What do the growth expectations for the large end and small end look like?

Howard Scott: Looking over the history of the industry, the lower end is steadily climbing. When we project toward the future, we find a very healthy projection pattern. For the higher end of the market, the projection is almost flat. As in the past, large projects will occur sporadically, and when they occur, they will dominate the market. However, the bulk of the activity is in the market below 500.000, and that will continue to grow sharply for the next several years.

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