When the Dog Shivers

Deck: 

Modeling variables improves daily estimates of gas demand.

Fortnightly Magazine - July 2009
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On October 14, 2004, the Columbus Dispatch quoted Jack Partridge, president of Columbia Gas of Ohio, “I’m proud to say that my furnace has not been turned on yet.” Living in a household with five others, Partridge said, “I cave in when the dog starts shivering.”

Dogs differ. At what daily temperature do customers turn on their furnaces? Or more realistically, given individual behavior, over what range of temperatures do they turn on their furnaces? What is the impact of model error on the daily balancing requirement? How does the seasonal variation in ground temperature affect gas demand? Given that wind speed affects daily gas demand in the winter but not the summer, over what range of temperatures does wind speed begin to have an impact? How many cold days cause customers to “cave in”?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) “measures heating energy demand” from a base of 65 degrees F. Customer conservation and building thermal efficiency have reduced this base for Columbia Gas of Ohio customers. To estimate the current base for its customers, Columbia used daily demand and temperature data for the three-year period from April 2005 through March 2008 (see Figure 1). Columbia included all customers with annual demand less than 15,000 MCF/year. This group includes all residential customers and the smaller commercial customers.

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