DC

Mailbag

Forecasts Send ROEs Wide of the Mark

In a recent "Offpeak" ("Forecasting is Just That," Jan. 1, 1996, p. 54), David Foti and Clay Denton report data showing the percentage of error found in various seven-year forecasts of natural gas prices (1988-94) produced by the American Gas Association (A.G.A.), Energy Information Administration (EIA), DRI/McGraw-Hill (DRI), Gas Research Institute, and WEFA Group. These errors ranged from approximately 50 to 95 percent.

The Gas Storage Market: What Does it Tell Us?

The authors asked pipelines

and LDCs how they used storage.

Leasing activity proved a surprise.

Since deregulation, the natural gas industry has seen tremendous changes in every sector. Competitive pressures have reorganized business strategies so much that only those firms that adapt will survive. One area that stands ripe for change is the natural gas storage market.

Why build gas storage fields?

Retail Aggregation: A Guaranteed Right for Small Customers?

With a CTC likely to cover stranded costs,

aggregators must somehow find power cheap

enough to offer real savings.

Retail aggregation: Wherever you stand, it appears 1998 could be the year of reckoning.

By then (em say those watching the future of aggregation in the "leader" states of California, New York, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire (em rulemakings will have sorted out the issues of stranded costs, distribution, and reliability.

Energy Service Companies: No More Mr. Niche Guy

The larger companies are winning more business. But how will

they fit into a restructured industry?

Put 45 energy service companies (ESCos) into a $1-billion market, and they easily average over $20 million each. That's almost four dozen companies exploiting a niche an eighth the size of the microprocessor industry.

So it's easy to understand why new ESCos, half with utility roots, enter the fray weekly.

Arkansas Oks Weather Normalization for LDC

The Arkansas Public Service Commission (PSC) has authorized Arkla, a division of Noram Energy Corp. and a natural gas local distribution company (LDC), to apply a weather normalization adjustment to billings from November through April. Finding that the new clause did not constitute a "general rate increase," the PSC rejected procedural objections that it failed to meet certain notice requirements.

LDC Aggregates Transportation Loads

The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) has approved a proposal by Peoples Gas System, Inc. to make gas transportation service available to customers that use more than 500,000 therms of natural gas, in the aggregate, at multiple delivery points within its service territory. To qualify, the multiple facilities must be directly owned and operated in the name of a single customer of record. The rates will be the same as those charged under the otherwise applicable sales tariff, less the purchased-gas adjustment charge.

LDC Acts to Retain Large Customers

The Maine Public Utilities Commission (PUC) has authorized Northern Utilities Co., a natural gas local distribution company (LDC), to offer a special rate to extra-large firm sales customers. The new offering is designed to enable large customers with flat loads to obtain gas service at a rate that better reflects the lower nongas cost of service for such customers. Unusually large customers

wishing to take service under the new rate must demonstrate that their load is largely flat and, thus, maximizes the nongas costs of serving their needs.

State Reviews Marginal Cost Pricing for Gas LDC

While examining cost allocation and rate design for natural gas distribution services provided by Pacific Gas and Electric Co., a local distribution company (LDC), the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has concluded that the long-run marginal cost method it adopted in 1992 was not proving effective in producing prices observed in fully competitive markets.

Decontracting: Stranded Costs for Interstate Pipelines?

Competition from Order 636 has gas customers rethinking their firm capacity options.

Just when everyone thought we had put Order 636 behind us, up pops perhaps our greatest challenge yet: the turnback (or "decontracting") of firm capacity on interstate natural gas pipelines. This phenomenon, now emerging on a few major pipelines, such as Transwestern, El Paso, and Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America, inspires different reactions.