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Revisiting California

Market power after two years.
Fortnightly Magazine - April 1 2002
  1. the ISO had no idea whether the resources were being exported out of state or were out of service. This led to many outlandish statements by generator representatives that price controls would simply make them sell their energy "out of state" in complete contravention of the laws of physics - Pacific Northwest loads are always quite low during the summer since air conditioning is not the major source of demand like it is in California.
  2. This was a surprise to Seattle City Light, since their superintendent, Gary Zarker, sat on the board of the WSCC and had never approved any such restrictions. We deduce, without evidence, that other members of WSCC were lobbying energetically to keep this data out of the hands of possible critics.
  3. , July 27, 2000.
  4. Since the 2002 report isn't available, we have used the forecasted levels from last years report for 2001.
  5. The ISO's Department of Market Analysis had invented a new way of studying the problem at the time by assuming that all resources that had not been offered to the California ISO had, in fact, failed or been exported. This simply adjusted the reserve margin down to the level available after market power was taken into account.
  6. , Western Systems Coordinating Council, June 20, 1974.
  7. February 6, 2001 letters by Barry Wallerstein (SCAQMD) and Richard Smith (San Diego APCD). Mr. Wallerstein's letter includes the phrase "[t]hese statements by AES are completely false and call into question AES' motivation in this matter."
  8. California ISO Information Availability Policy, originally dated October 22, 1998, modified November 1, 2001.
  9. This chart was based on data provided by the EIA. The EIA has faced substantial pressure to reduce the amount of such data available to public, as has FERC, the WSCC, and the North American Electric Reliability Council.
  10. NERC's Generation Availability Data System (GADS) can be used to review the history for any type of plant. It is available on NERC's web site.
  11. , FERC, February 1, 2001.
  12. The 1982 through 1999 GADS report provides an availability rate (WAF) of 82.14% for units of 600-799 megawatts, 81.48% for units of 300-399 megawatts, and 84.30% for units in the 100-199 megawatt range. Availability factors have improved over time, even though the average age of the units has increased - contrary to the impression FERC staff received during their preliminary audit.
  13. , January 31, 2002, page 4.
  14. The model uses heat rates derived from EPA hourly generation and fuel use data, MWh/No x data from the same source, and market natural gas and electric prices. RECLAIM prices are the monthly average for coastal and inland markets.
  15. , McCullough Research, January 10, 2002.

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