Changing the Fuel Mix: Time for a Nuclear Rescue?

Deck: 
Gas-fired power is king today, but fuel diversity needs and new technologies may open the door for nuclear and coal.
Fortnightly Magazine - September 1 2002
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By Lori A. Burkhart

Gas-fired power is king today, but fuel diversity needs and new technologies may open the door for nuclear and coal.

The nation's demand for electricity is expected to grow by over 40 percent in the next 20 years, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meeting that need will require a great number of new generating plants. The burning question is, what will fuel these new plants?

Gas-fired plants are the current kings of the industry. EIA in its Annual Energy Outlook 2002 projects that the share of generation from natural gas will double in the next 20 years, increasing from 16 percent in 2000 to 32 percent in 2020. At the same time, the share of generation from coal in the United States is expected to decline from 52 percent to 46 percent, mostly due to more investment in the less capital- intensive, more efficient natural gas generation technologies. Also, nuclear generation capacity at exis ting plants has been maxed out.

Yet, nuclear and coal aren't exactly pretenders to the throne. The sleeping nuclear and coal industries are waking up, not only because of need for new capacity, but also because they've been stirred by higher natural gas prices, the debacle in the California power market, and the situation in the Middle East.

The renewed call for fuel diversity in light of the need to lower dependence on any one fuel source could really buoy the coal and nuclear industries. Due to lower coal prices and with the nuclear-friendly Bush administration in office, things already are getting interesting.

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