Emissions: Where Are the Traders?

Deck: 
Market fundamentals are driving NO<sub>X</sub> prices higher.
Fortnightly Magazine - June 15 2003
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Market fundamentals are driving NOX prices higher.

Environmental compliance appears poised to become the biggest single driver of asset value for electric generators during the next five years.

While limits on sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions have been achieved with relatively minor impact through the tradeable allowance program, permit systems in the future will become increasingly stringent. The NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call represents just the first instance of this.

The next two years will see further resolution of New Source Review enforcement actions, proposed regulations of coal plant mercury emissions, and likely further action with regard to multi-emission proposals governing NOX, SO2, and mercury emissions within a single program.

Platts Research & Consulting (PR&C) has conducted in-depth analysis of the NOX SIP Call emissions market during the last several months, even as the price of NOX emission credits for the region has traded in the $6,000-$7,000/ton range. Based on this analysis, we have concluded the following:

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