Fortnightly Magazine - May 2004

Letter to the Editor

Letters to the Editor

To the Editor:

The article "NERC's Cloudy Crystal Ball" () contends that the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) has consistently underestimated the growth in U.S. electricity demand. The only evidence offered for this conclusion is that observed data did not encircle the 45-degree line in a graph of actual vs. forecast percentage growth rates. Conjectures such as this are invalid for numerous reasons.

Benchmarks

Unless gas prices stabilize, coal prices will continue rising.

Benchmarks

Unless gas prices stabilize, coal prices will continue rising.

Gas prices to power plants have surged in 2003, increasing more than 50 percent over their 2002 level. In absolute terms, this gas price in-crease exceeds $2/MMBtu-almost two thirds larger than average coal prices to power plants in 2003-and has rekindled interest in new coal-fired power plants. An increasing number of new coal-fired projects have been announced in the last 12 months.

V