Investing in Uncertain Times

Deck: 

A Framework

Fortnightly Magazine - June 2025
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Today’s energy system is built on a platform of natural monopolies intended to deliver economies of scale and generally affordable commodity goods to fuel society. This structure provides reliable, low-risk rates of return, but was not designed for periods of rapid change. As a result, the platform does not effectively anticipate and absorb risk or respond to future uncertainty.

And yet, this is precisely where we find ourselves today in the U.S. energy landscape — a system grappling with internal and external uncertainty, and a lack of commitment to proactively adopting new technologies, regulatory updates, and financial structures.

Utilities and system operators face numerous unknowns as they work hard to anticipate future demand for power, explore integrating evolving technologies, and consider how regulatory structures must evolve to meet the needs of the future grid. The economic context is changing rapidly as well, with tax credits, tariffs, and inflation forming a trio of incentives at the center of domestic economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical events further complicate this scenario, impacting the decisions of all participants in the energy ecosystem. Rapidly shifting regional and national alliances and conflicts heighten the risk in energy investments through price volatility, uncertainty in upstream and downstream markets, and unpredictable trade dynamics.

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