ERCOT load growth: patterns, possibilities, and second thoughts.
Ken Monts is a senior planning analyst at ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
Through August 31, ERCOT's 2013 system load was 223 TWh (223 million MWh). Had ERCOT's 2013 capital stock retained its 2010 characteristics for energy intensity - i.e., energy use per unit of economic activity - the system load by that same date would likely have hit 237 TWh, or 6.3% higher than actual.
For the prior year, 2012, ERCOT's annual load (Jan-Dec) was 327 TWh. Again, however, if ERCOT's 2012 capital stock for electricity end uses (e.g., residential and commercial lighting, residential and commercial space conditioning equipment, industrial process equipment, etc.) had retained its 2010 energy intensity, then 2012 load would likely have reached 339 TWh - 12 TWh higher than actual.