CCGT

It's not as straightforward as it seems, says an industry veteran.

No one can foresee with a high degree of certainty how electric energy markets will be structured over the long-term. The changes facing the electric energy industry may be as profound as those upheavals we've seen in the airline industry during the past two decades. In the "good old days," a flight from New York to Chicago had one price and an electric generating plant had a regulated price for each kilowatt-hour produced.

What to Do With All that CASH?Seeing no need to build, utility managers are looking

to invest. Can they be trusted

with stockholder money?With little of the fanfare that surrounds the debate on utility competition, robust cash flows and declining capital outlays have created forces that will reshape the industry no matter how competitive restructuring unfolds. Cash generation already exceeds investment in core utility activities, and the differential will grow sharply over the next several years.

Technological advances in electric generation and telecommunications make utility competition both possible and inevitable. These economic forces will eventually break down the regulatory structure of the electric industry. However, public policy should play a crucial role in molding and nurturing competition.In recent months, regulators in a majority of the states have opened proceedings to study electric competition.

The financial community's focus on utility competition has been riveted on the proceedings now in progress at state regulatory commissions. The fear that something immediately damaging will come out of these proceedings seems to have diminished in recent months, and the stock market has reacted favorably. However, regulatory developments are only one of four paths leading to competition; the others are the marketplace, the legislatures, and the courts.