A line-by-line case study of two high-priced portfolios, comparing fixed, variable and capital costs against forecasts of regional market prices.
A multi-billion-dollar wave of utility divestiture and power plant auctions has taken place during the last 18 months. Table 1 details some of these transactions, including the purchase price on a dollar-per-kilowatt basis and as a multiple of net book value. These measures frequently are cited as indications that buyers paid too much. Here we refute the use of these measures for the valuation of competitive power plants, and offer step-by-step analytical approaches that are better suited to the task.
Pace Global Energy Services has provided valuation services to bidders for much of the divested utility capacity. Our analysis, supported by in-house financial and fuels services as well as our proprietary market price analysis system, indicates that some of the winning bidders of plants really are winners, some are maybe winners and some should prepare for a fire sale. But in no case was the book value a significant indicator of the market value of the plant. In all fairness, there may be a valid reason for the confusion surrounding the meaning of the multiple of net book value purchase price.
Our simplified analysis includes the following steps to assess each case:
1. Determine likely capacity factors;
2. Determine plant's output in megawatt-hours given its capacity factor and its demonstrated capacity in megawatts;
3. Establish variable costs of production based on historical data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in dollars per megawatt-hour;