Law & Lawyers

With the possible exception of keeping the lights on, the merger game dwarfs just about every other question facing today’s electric utilities. The last big wave of consolidation hit in the late 1990s. Now the forecast calls for a repeat performance, but don’t bet the farm. There’s a hitch, you see. It’s today’s high commodity costs.

If you were a utility executive today would you consider building a new nuclear power plant? What if the United States decided to implement the emission reductions called for in the Kyoto Protocol without adopting it? How might your business be affected by another 9/11-scale terrorist attack on a U.S. target? What would be the impact of growing reliability problems in key U.S. power markets? Some utility executives are asking themselves just such questions.

To better understand the performance of the electric utility sector from both a short-term and long-term perspective, we examined the total shareholder return (TSR)—dividends plus change in stock price—of 58 electric companies for 2005 and for three- and five-year periods. We grouped these companies into four categories to better understand the impact of alternative strategies on investor performance: Recovering, Traditionalist, Growth, and Merger.

Companies that relied heavily on mergers and acquisitions generated more than half of the value in the power industry during the past 10 years. Furthermore, more than half that value was generated by a handful of companies. How did they do it?